New Times/Siena surveys show Democrats leading in every key state that will decide Senate control. The results suggest a late shift toward Democratic candidates in the final days of the midterm campaign.
The polls cover the races most likely to tip the Senate balance. Democrats hold an edge in each of those contests, according to the surveys.
Late polling often draws scrutiny because earlier elections produced notable misses. The 2016 and 2020 cycles both showed gaps between final surveys and actual results.
Pollsters have adjusted their methods since those misses. Many now weight samples by education and past voting behavior to reach more reliable estimates.
Senate control remains close enough that small polling errors could change the outcome. A lead of a few points sits within the margin of error in several states.
Early voting and turnout patterns add further uncertainty to the final numbers. Surveys cannot fully capture who will actually cast ballots.
The Times/Siena surveys are among the most closely watched in the final stretch. Their findings will shape expectations heading into Election Day.
